What Are The Chances of Getting a Six (and what does that have to do with the lottery anyway!)?

[Q] My friend reckons if he buys one ticket, his odds of winning the lottery jackpot are about 1-in-14 million. He says if he buys just one ticket in his lifetime, the odds are exactly the same as if he wastes money on buying a ticket every week. Is he right?

[A] No.

Simplify it to dice. Always seems easier with dice :-)

Let's say somebody was offering you and your friend a million bucks if you could throw a 6. Only snag is, one of you gets to have 1,000 throws of the dice, the other only gets one throw. Would your friend really let you have the 1,000 throws without the slightest complaint..?

The chances of getting a 6 in one throw are 1/6.

For two throws, there are three ways to get a six:
[1] First throw IS a six, second throw NOT a six
[2] First throw NOT a six, second throw IS a six
[3] Both throws are a six.

Chances of [1] are 1/6 x 5/6 = 5/36
(i.e. 1-in-6 chance of getting the 6, then 5-in-6 of getting anything but a six)
Chances of [2] are 5/6 x 1/6 = 5/36
Chances of [3] are 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36

Total chance of getting at least one six in two throws of the dice is therefore 11/36, or just over 30%.

The formula for rolling at least one 6 in n rolls is: 1 - (5/6)^n

So even just 20 throws gives you a 97% chance of a 6 :-)

Bonus UK Lotto Jackpot Draw - Saturday 27 April

This Saturday the UK Lotto is giving all players an extra bonus.

Every ticket bought for the main draw this Saturday, will also be entered into a second Jackpot Only draw. As the name suggests the only prize will be the jackpot of £5 Million (for matching all 6 numbers).

If you've been saving up some entries to maximise chances, this draw is a good time to play - double your jackpot chances at no extra cost.

You can get in on this UK draw with my favourite UK syndicate if you move fast (your share of 44 entries will only cost £2-50).

The New Monday Charities Lottery in the UK

A new lottery has now arrived in the UK. The first draw is set to take place on 8th May 2006.

monday - The Charities Lottery is being launched by Chariot, a company set up in order to provide a 'fairer' lottery, that also pays more to charity. The UK National Lottery supports many good causes, but has received much criticism for some donations that didn't meet with the popular media idea of 'a good cause'.

The new game will be a Monday night draw, hence the games name... 'monday'. The jackpot will be capped at £200,000, but there will be no rollovers because there will be a guaranteed winner every week. If no-one matches 6 balls to win the jackpot, then the person nearest to winning will get the jackpot!

The type of game hasn't been announced, but Chariot say the jackpot odds will be better than for the UK Lotto.

Charity is a big focus of the game, and charities will received 30p for every £1 spent.

monday is to be an online only game, available from www.playmonday.com